‘In the 1870s, the world went through a period now called the Long Depression, a quarter century of deflation, technological disruption, and geopolitical realignment. The industrialized nations of that era had built their economies on assumptions about resource access that proved fragile when tested. The scramble for Africa, the race for colonies, the Berlin Conference of 1884, these were, at their core, commodity plays. The great powers looked at a map and asked: who controls the rubber, the copper, the tin, the agricultural land? And then they acted on the answers with a ruthlessness that remade the world.’
A side note I had on my Obsidian about the subject, I can't remember if it was for me or someone else, as it's just a succession of facts, you can use it as you wish
All recentvwars were the real signal for me it is happening, all about those commodities.
The tech world is moving faster than the foundation supporting him, every industry and her own story creates the current and future world.
I always look of a way to invest according to my thesis, I wrote about Libertystream, an approach that in my opinion breaks many rules in the resources world.
They are extracting lithium very fast, very cheap and domesticly + refining.
Most important they reached commecial scale oppose to everyone declared so in 2021.
That of course one investment in one industry and does not change the wider scope but still a great opportunity in my opinion.
First class work. This caught my eye, “Fourth, pay attention to what central banks are doing, not what they are saying.” Central banks (98% of them) are developing the monetary system that emerges post fiat. CBDCs. The future of money. The perfect currency for a post growth, post abundant world. This isn’t a prediction but happening as we speak. Fiat is a thermodynamic currency. It needs infinite growth, infinite energy. It is no longer suited to the world you rightly describe. The Long Convergence is the thesis of this monetary evolution and the logical outcome of a system built on more.
‘In the 1870s, the world went through a period now called the Long Depression, a quarter century of deflation, technological disruption, and geopolitical realignment. The industrialized nations of that era had built their economies on assumptions about resource access that proved fragile when tested. The scramble for Africa, the race for colonies, the Berlin Conference of 1884, these were, at their core, commodity plays. The great powers looked at a map and asked: who controls the rubber, the copper, the tin, the agricultural land? And then they acted on the answers with a ruthlessness that remade the world.’
Where is this quote from? Thanks
A side note I had on my Obsidian about the subject, I can't remember if it was for me or someone else, as it's just a succession of facts, you can use it as you wish
It’s from chat gpt or something?
No.
Great article
Thank you Leslie, what did you the most about it?
Honestly, all of it really, all ties in nicely together…
The structural argument makes sense.
The harder question is timing.
Markets can ignore “unavoidable” constraints longer than most investors can stay positioned for them — and that’s where the damage usually happens.
There’s lots of oceanographers and marine scientists that can’t captain a ship.
That’s true.
But markets don’t pay for who understands the problem best. They pay for who can survive the timing mismatch long enough for the thesis to matter.
A correct macro view with bad positioning discipline still blows up portfolios.
Follow the money. It's always and ever About The Money.
Great article! Loved your view.
All recentvwars were the real signal for me it is happening, all about those commodities.
The tech world is moving faster than the foundation supporting him, every industry and her own story creates the current and future world.
I always look of a way to invest according to my thesis, I wrote about Libertystream, an approach that in my opinion breaks many rules in the resources world.
They are extracting lithium very fast, very cheap and domesticly + refining.
Most important they reached commecial scale oppose to everyone declared so in 2021.
That of course one investment in one industry and does not change the wider scope but still a great opportunity in my opinion.
First class work. This caught my eye, “Fourth, pay attention to what central banks are doing, not what they are saying.” Central banks (98% of them) are developing the monetary system that emerges post fiat. CBDCs. The future of money. The perfect currency for a post growth, post abundant world. This isn’t a prediction but happening as we speak. Fiat is a thermodynamic currency. It needs infinite growth, infinite energy. It is no longer suited to the world you rightly describe. The Long Convergence is the thesis of this monetary evolution and the logical outcome of a system built on more.